Author Topic: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040  (Read 2178 times)

Offline BillTodd

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 779
  • Country: 00
  • Colchester Essex (where the lathes were made)
Feeling the need to rant...


It is interesting to crunch some numbers: 

The UK's total generating capacity is about 74.8GW  (as of 2015, although this is expected to drop to 70.6GW by 2019). As of 26 Nov 2016 this was supplied by 57% Gas, 20% nuclear, 8% coal, 5% biomass, 2.6% french ICT 2.6% Dutch ICT,  2% wind plus a few otherminor sources.


Typical peak demand is 48GW, leaving about 26GW for fast charging (assuming all resources are available)

Last night (26 Nov 2016) overnight demand (between midnight and 05:00) dropped to 26.3GW. Leaving about 48.5 GW to charge batteries over night (assuming all resources are available)

(http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/demand24.htm)

The typical EV battery is between 10kWh and 100kWh ( 3kW - 20KW required charge depending on speed) and it really does not matter what battery technology will be used , moving a tonne of car along (even at typically slow UK road speeds) takes the same amount of energy.

So, the UK might just be able to cope  with 16 million electric cars charging slowly over night or as few as a million on fast charge
 (Assuming  the domestic grid can cope with the current) .

There are 31.7 million cars on the UK's road as of 2016.


ONE standard petrol pump can ‘dispense’ about 20,000kw ; 600 gallons per hour times 33.4kwh/ USgallon (figures in UK/Europe are similar). Compare this with your standard domestic supply which is,in the UK 60A@230v, ~ 14kw. Nobody’s going to be charging their electric vehicle at home very fast unless there is a significant upgrade to the power grid.

Another point: there are 8 pumps at my local petrol station, and there must be more than half a dozen similar sized filling stations within a mile or two. Those can supply about a gigawatt of power, or about the same output as the Sizewell B nuclear power station (PWR).

If all future vehicles are going to be electric, our neighbourhoods are going to change out of all recognition.


Bill
Bill

Offline David Jupp

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 275
  • Country: gb
  • Teesside - UK
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2017, 06:23:27 AM »
The news coverage on this has been woeful - not clear at all.

Is it just pure IC driven cars that will be banned?  If so then Hybrids (which we'll still fill up with petrol or diesel) will still be sold.

Sure there will be increase in pure electric cars, but in another 20+ years our infrastructure will look very different too - that's part of the point of giving the long notice, to drive some of the changes.

Online AdeV

  • Madmodder Committee
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1952
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2017, 09:16:20 AM »
The ban will include hybrids (petrol/electric or diesel/electric). Which basically leaves electric or fuel cell powered options.
Cheers!
Ade.
--
Location: Wallasey, Merseyside. A long way from anywhere.
Or: Zhengzhou, China. An even longer way from anywhere...
Skype: adev73

Offline chipenter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 726
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2017, 09:42:24 AM »
Not to mention the CO2 needed to make the batteries , and the raw materials to make them of witch we are running out of .
Jeff

Offline awemawson

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5527
  • Country: gb
  • East Sussex, UK
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2017, 09:52:16 AM »
I visualise having an electric tractor pulling a HUGE battery on a trailer followed by a single furrow plough - no more 15 furrow fast ploughs I'm afraid.

From an Eco point of view, my current tractors are 1973 and and 1975 (I think) - so a very long life span / payback for the initial energy used making them - whereas any feasible electric replacement will have a very limited life if only because of the battery.


There are going to be a lot of hungry people breathing all this pure air we've achieved  :scratch:
Andrew Mawson
East Sussex

Offline Bluechip

  • Madmodder Committee
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1497
  • Country: england
  • Derbyshire UK
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2017, 11:12:25 AM »
In 2040 I will be 96 or dead. Either way I won't care.

For those who don't fancy the transition from petrol-head to electron-head alternatives will become available I'm sure.

Possibly along these lines >>>>

D.

One thing has occurred to me. When we get the inevitable multi-vehicle pile-up, how will the Lithium-Ion battery fires be dealt with? From what I gather they can only be smothered with sand or CO2, water ain't no good ???

I have a few modest talents. Knowing what I'm doing isn't one of them.

Online AdeV

  • Madmodder Committee
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1952
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2017, 12:05:51 PM »
I guess it's worth throwing a few observations in here, lest we lose objectivity...

First - they're talking about the sale of new vehicles with IC engines. Second-hand cars will continue to have IC engines of course, and there's mumbleteen million vehicles out there with IC engines. It'll be many, many years before those vehicles are all (or, at least, mostly) gone.

Second - by setting this 23 years in the future, and with the massive assumption that Government isn't as moronic as normal, this gives the electricity industry, the battery industry and the fuel distribution industry time to put together a suitable electric alternative.

Third - Now that there's a target date, expect manufacturers to start moving sooner rather than later towards all-electric models. Also, this will trigger some serious investment into battery tech, recharging tech and so on.


I'd say, come 2040, we'll be far better prepared than if we just left things as they were. The issue (for me) is: Are electric vehicles better than IC powered vehicles? As the controversial Jeremy Clarkson said, when Concorde was finally grounded forever: This is a sad day. Today, the world got a little bit worse, because for the first time ever a technology is being retired even though there's nothing better to replace it with. I do wonder if the diesel-electric hybrid isn't the pinnacle of automotive mastery (the railway, of course, having come to that conclusion nearly 100 years ago...)
Cheers!
Ade.
--
Location: Wallasey, Merseyside. A long way from anywhere.
Or: Zhengzhou, China. An even longer way from anywhere...
Skype: adev73

Offline David Jupp

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 275
  • Country: gb
  • Teesside - UK
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2017, 12:16:54 PM »
And the article I read (BBC - so may or may not be correct) says Hybrids are excluded from the ban.  So the opposite of what AdeV has picked up.

Anyway - not much I can do about it.

Offline philf

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 791
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2017, 12:18:28 PM »
We enjoy caravanning in remote locations and often the only facilities provided on the site are a tap for drinking water and somewhere to empty the loo.

The obvious solution to recharging the tow vehicle would be to carry a generator - powered by petrol or diesel!   :scratch:
Phil Fern
Location: Marple, Cheshire

Offline Ironhorse57

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 12
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2017, 02:27:07 PM »
A small issue which doesn't seem to have mentioned anywhere - the current 'best' battery is Lithium based but supplies of said element are finite and I understand already limited.  Are we relying on some bright spark inventing totally new battery technology and/or coming up with an alternative renewable type of battery material?

Dave


Online AdeV

  • Madmodder Committee
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1952
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2017, 08:04:38 PM »
A small issue which doesn't seem to have mentioned anywhere - the current 'best' battery is Lithium based but supplies of said element are finite and I understand already limited.  Are we relying on some bright spark inventing totally new battery technology and/or coming up with an alternative renewable type of battery material?

Interesting article on that here: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough-lithium-to-maintain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m

TL;DR: Known reserves at current rates of extraction give us 365 years of production; the article suggests that if there's an explosion in the use of lithium in EVs, those reserves drop to 50 years, and if they go all out from now, it's only 17 years worth...

There are alternates - the article mentions a few possibles, but any of the group 1 metals (Sodium, Potassium and Rubidium) should serve as alternatives. Caesium not so much, due to the slight problem of it being radioactive... So far, sodium ion batteries have a lower energy density than Lithium ion (presumably due to the larger atomic size?), potassium batteries are still very young technology. Both are much more common than lithium, though, so if high energy density can be achieved, long term these will become the favoured chemicals - at least, until someone invents an even better mousetrap...
Cheers!
Ade.
--
Location: Wallasey, Merseyside. A long way from anywhere.
Or: Zhengzhou, China. An even longer way from anywhere...
Skype: adev73

Offline mattinker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1021
  • Country: fr
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2017, 11:57:55 PM »
There are far too many imponderables to be able to say much about what's going to happen in the future, even the near future. I came across this today.


https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/zeolite-catalysts-convert-carbon-dioxide-to-fuel/3007572.article?utm_content=july-zeo-reg-row&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=advert&utm_campaign=mkt-dir-cm-010-17

Regards, Matthew

Online AdeV

  • Madmodder Committee
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1952
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2017, 05:48:27 AM »
Fascinating stuff... the yields are pretty poor at the moment, but human ingenuity knows no bounds, someone will find ways to improve it. Seems like a project tailor-made for Africa too: Loads of solar cells to provide the electricity, pump the water in, pump the gasoline out... At least, until fusion power is viable hat is.
Cheers!
Ade.
--
Location: Wallasey, Merseyside. A long way from anywhere.
Or: Zhengzhou, China. An even longer way from anywhere...
Skype: adev73

Offline seadog

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 115
  • Country: gb
  • NE London
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2017, 06:13:30 AM »
'Edman Tsang of the University of Oxford, UK, comments that both developments have come at a good time. ‘When everybody’s very interested in how to deal with carbon emissions, I think it’s pretty useful to have a direct conversion of CO2 to gasoline,’ he says.'

Great, we use CO2 from the atmosphere to create a fuel and thereby solve the problem of emissions? Am I missing something obvious here, or is there a fundamental flaw in what he's saying? What happens when the fuel is used,or is the intention just to put it in tanks and never use it?
Yes, it produces CO2. Hmmm  :Doh:

Online AdeV

  • Madmodder Committee
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1952
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2017, 06:21:28 AM »
Great, we use CO2 from the atmosphere to create a fuel and thereby solve the problem of emissions? Am I missing something obvious here, or is there a fundamental flaw in what here? What happens when the fuel is used,or is the intention just to put it in tanks and never use it?
Yes, it produces CO2. Hmmm  :Doh:

Assuming you believe that manmade atmospheric CO2 is causing global warming/climate change, then - provided the electricity you use to generate the hydrogen used in the reaction is renewable - wind, solar, fusion if it ever happens - then this is a way of extending the life of existing infrastructure without increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The ultimate in green petrol...

It doesn't address the issues of NOx and city pollution, no.
Cheers!
Ade.
--
Location: Wallasey, Merseyside. A long way from anywhere.
Or: Zhengzhou, China. An even longer way from anywhere...
Skype: adev73

Offline mattinker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1021
  • Country: fr
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2017, 06:25:27 AM »
Am I missing something obvious here, or is there a fundamental flaw in what here? What happens when the fuel is used,or is the intention just to put it in tanks and never use it?
Yes, it produces CO2. Hmmm  :Doh:

The idea is that you use the CO2 from the atmosphere rather than getting it out of the ground and increasing the percentage of CO2 in the air. This is the thinking behind burning wood as an ecological thing, the CO2 cycle doesn't make things worse!

Regards, Matthew.

Offline S. Heslop

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 930
  • Country: gb
  • Newcastle Upon Tyne
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2017, 07:04:57 AM »
There's be alot of energy involved in collecting the CO2 from the atmosphere, and then alot of energy involved in converting it back to a useable fuel. I can't imagine it'd ever be an efficient process, or make a better store of energy than batteries or the fabled hydrogen.

Myself i'm more worried about self driving cars. I can see that once they become a thing insurance rates will skyrocket for regular cars, so you'll have to enslave yourself to Google Facebook owned computer controlled wifi connected cars that transmit your whereabouts to advertisers, your boss, and anyone else that pays for it. Who then use that information to drive you past as many billboards and fast food chains as possible on the ride home. In the year 2040 they'll have speech recognition good enough to overhear and automatically process all your conversations and use that to tailor adverts and build your credit rating and insurance rates on.

But I say that like we're not already living in that world. I just don't want even more aspects of my life controlled by huge unethical tech companies.

Offline PekkaNF

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1799
  • Country: fi
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2017, 01:53:31 PM »
That would be Fischer–Tropsch process derivate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process

Democracy is that we can choose whoever politician that obeys bankkers, energy sector and worse. Populists are worst ofcourse.

Pekka

Offline chipenter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 726
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2017, 02:45:05 PM »
Just to change the subject slitly there is recyicling https://www.facebook.com/michelle.tangey/videos/768491296528174/  .
Jeff

Offline Mike E.

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 30
  • Country: us
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2017, 04:13:15 PM »
I'm not worried about any ban, especially 20 odd years from now; just another political storm in a teacup. Follow the money trail. As long as there is profit to be made in fossil fuels, conventional vehicles will be made and driven somewhere on the planet. As for government bans, none will stop the flow of air born pollution at any border, lol. 
Mike

California & Wales  - Home, & Home Away

Offline vtsteam

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4862
  • Country: us
  • Republic of Vermont
    • www. sredmond.com
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2017, 11:05:22 PM »
It's funny people are so focused on forcing conversion of transportation energy sources, and ignore something as simple to alter as energy sources for building and process heat.

And to quote Bill Todd in the first post:

"As of 26 Nov 2016 this was supplied by 57% Gas, 20% nuclear, 8% coal."  Which is 85% big time fueling. Electricity is merely a medium for transmission of combustion and fission processes. It's a metaphorical hydraulic fluid flowing from the pumps of the real engines.

Transportation benefits from liquid fuels, because it has high energy density and can flow through a pipe from a tank in a compact mobile mechanism. Solids don't work well there, and gasses don't either because they have low energy density, unless under extreme pressure, a hazard in a moving vehicle.

Fluids are NOT necessary for producing heat in a stationary facility, though they are commonly used there. Whether that's a home heating furnace, industrial heating plant, or even a steam plant for producing electricity. Solids work as well, and that is the form of most unrefined (and therefore energy efficient) biofuels.

If the focus was diverted from altering fuels for transportation to altering fuels for heating and solid fuel steam powered electric generation, to solid biofuels, a great savings in fossil CO2 release would be the benefit. As well as a great reduction in the use of valuable and finite supply liquid fuels best suited to transportation.

I love it when a Plan B comes together!
Steve
www.sredmond.com

Offline awemawson

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5527
  • Country: gb
  • East Sussex, UK
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2017, 02:21:28 AM »
But Steve, the U.K. Politicians are apparently motivated by being seen to be trying to lower pollution levels in our towns and cites, and no doubt they are correct in thinking the twice daily increase in levels during peak times is mainly due to internal combustion engines.

You are right that combined heat and power would be far easier to implement, but it wouldn't score the Brownie Points that they are chasing!

Andrew Mawson
East Sussex

Offline Jo

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 119
  • Country: gb
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2017, 03:57:49 AM »
Yet another case of Politicians opening their mouth without understanding what they are saying  :loco:

We did a study at work to look at the consequences  of our staff charging their cars when they came to work... So 1KWh = 3 miles travel, average travel to work = 50 miles = 16.6KWh recharge required. Easy you say you can do that from a 13A plug socket over 8 hours but there are 200 parking spaces = 3.2MW extra load over the working day = an extra 400KWh electric load per hour. Not only is there no electrical infrastructure in the car park to provide it but the feed to the site itself is not big enough to take that additional load and our site electric pricing is based on peak loads :bugeye:


Lets start with ALL politicians replacing their cars with Electric cars (no Hybrids) immediately, then they will get to understand the practicalities, of this latest idea of theirs.   :coffee:

Jo
So many engines to build and yet so little time.

Offline BillTodd

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 779
  • Country: 00
  • Colchester Essex (where the lathes were made)
Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2017, 07:03:22 AM »
 Thankyou jo , you get it

The real problem here is not the electric vehical or battery, it is the power supply chain. The electrical infrastructure simply cannot cope with such a significant increase in load
Bill