Author Topic: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040  (Read 2449 times)

Offline BillTodd

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Feeling the need to rant...


It is interesting to crunch some numbers: 

The UK's total generating capacity is about 74.8GW  (as of 2015, although this is expected to drop to 70.6GW by 2019). As of 26 Nov 2016 this was supplied by 57% Gas, 20% nuclear, 8% coal, 5% biomass, 2.6% french ICT 2.6% Dutch ICT,  2% wind plus a few otherminor sources.


Typical peak demand is 48GW, leaving about 26GW for fast charging (assuming all resources are available)

Last night (26 Nov 2016) overnight demand (between midnight and 05:00) dropped to 26.3GW. Leaving about 48.5 GW to charge batteries over night (assuming all resources are available)

(http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/demand24.htm)

The typical EV battery is between 10kWh and 100kWh ( 3kW - 20KW required charge depending on speed) and it really does not matter what battery technology will be used , moving a tonne of car along (even at typically slow UK road speeds) takes the same amount of energy.

So, the UK might just be able to cope  with 16 million electric cars charging slowly over night or as few as a million on fast charge
 (Assuming  the domestic grid can cope with the current) .

There are 31.7 million cars on the UK's road as of 2016.


ONE standard petrol pump can ‘dispense’ about 20,000kw ; 600 gallons per hour times 33.4kwh/ USgallon (figures in UK/Europe are similar). Compare this with your standard domestic supply which is,in the UK 60A@230v, ~ 14kw. Nobody’s going to be charging their electric vehicle at home very fast unless there is a significant upgrade to the power grid.

Another point: there are 8 pumps at my local petrol station, and there must be more than half a dozen similar sized filling stations within a mile or two. Those can supply about a gigawatt of power, or about the same output as the Sizewell B nuclear power station (PWR).

If all future vehicles are going to be electric, our neighbourhoods are going to change out of all recognition.


Bill
Bill

Offline David Jupp

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2017, 06:23:27 AM »
The news coverage on this has been woeful - not clear at all.

Is it just pure IC driven cars that will be banned?  If so then Hybrids (which we'll still fill up with petrol or diesel) will still be sold.

Sure there will be increase in pure electric cars, but in another 20+ years our infrastructure will look very different too - that's part of the point of giving the long notice, to drive some of the changes.

Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2017, 09:16:20 AM »
The ban will include hybrids (petrol/electric or diesel/electric). Which basically leaves electric or fuel cell powered options.
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline chipenter

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2017, 09:42:24 AM »
Not to mention the CO2 needed to make the batteries , and the raw materials to make them of witch we are running out of .
Jeff

Offline awemawson

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2017, 09:52:16 AM »
I visualise having an electric tractor pulling a HUGE battery on a trailer followed by a single furrow plough - no more 15 furrow fast ploughs I'm afraid.

From an Eco point of view, my current tractors are 1973 and and 1975 (I think) - so a very long life span / payback for the initial energy used making them - whereas any feasible electric replacement will have a very limited life if only because of the battery.


There are going to be a lot of hungry people breathing all this pure air we've achieved  :scratch:
Andrew Mawson
East Sussex

Offline Bluechip

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2017, 11:12:25 AM »
In 2040 I will be 96 or dead. Either way I won't care.

For those who don't fancy the transition from petrol-head to electron-head alternatives will become available I'm sure.

Possibly along these lines >>>>

D.

One thing has occurred to me. When we get the inevitable multi-vehicle pile-up, how will the Lithium-Ion battery fires be dealt with? From what I gather they can only be smothered with sand or CO2, water ain't no good ???

I have a few modest talents. Knowing what I'm doing isn't one of them.

Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2017, 12:05:51 PM »
I guess it's worth throwing a few observations in here, lest we lose objectivity...

First - they're talking about the sale of new vehicles with IC engines. Second-hand cars will continue to have IC engines of course, and there's mumbleteen million vehicles out there with IC engines. It'll be many, many years before those vehicles are all (or, at least, mostly) gone.

Second - by setting this 23 years in the future, and with the massive assumption that Government isn't as moronic as normal, this gives the electricity industry, the battery industry and the fuel distribution industry time to put together a suitable electric alternative.

Third - Now that there's a target date, expect manufacturers to start moving sooner rather than later towards all-electric models. Also, this will trigger some serious investment into battery tech, recharging tech and so on.


I'd say, come 2040, we'll be far better prepared than if we just left things as they were. The issue (for me) is: Are electric vehicles better than IC powered vehicles? As the controversial Jeremy Clarkson said, when Concorde was finally grounded forever: This is a sad day. Today, the world got a little bit worse, because for the first time ever a technology is being retired even though there's nothing better to replace it with. I do wonder if the diesel-electric hybrid isn't the pinnacle of automotive mastery (the railway, of course, having come to that conclusion nearly 100 years ago...)
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline David Jupp

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2017, 12:16:54 PM »
And the article I read (BBC - so may or may not be correct) says Hybrids are excluded from the ban.  So the opposite of what AdeV has picked up.

Anyway - not much I can do about it.

Offline philf

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2017, 12:18:28 PM »
We enjoy caravanning in remote locations and often the only facilities provided on the site are a tap for drinking water and somewhere to empty the loo.

The obvious solution to recharging the tow vehicle would be to carry a generator - powered by petrol or diesel!   :scratch:
Phil Fern
Location: Marple, Cheshire

Offline Ironhorse57

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2017, 02:27:07 PM »
A small issue which doesn't seem to have mentioned anywhere - the current 'best' battery is Lithium based but supplies of said element are finite and I understand already limited.  Are we relying on some bright spark inventing totally new battery technology and/or coming up with an alternative renewable type of battery material?

Dave


Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2017, 08:04:38 PM »
A small issue which doesn't seem to have mentioned anywhere - the current 'best' battery is Lithium based but supplies of said element are finite and I understand already limited.  Are we relying on some bright spark inventing totally new battery technology and/or coming up with an alternative renewable type of battery material?

Interesting article on that here: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-there-enough-lithium-to-maintain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m

TL;DR: Known reserves at current rates of extraction give us 365 years of production; the article suggests that if there's an explosion in the use of lithium in EVs, those reserves drop to 50 years, and if they go all out from now, it's only 17 years worth...

There are alternates - the article mentions a few possibles, but any of the group 1 metals (Sodium, Potassium and Rubidium) should serve as alternatives. Caesium not so much, due to the slight problem of it being radioactive... So far, sodium ion batteries have a lower energy density than Lithium ion (presumably due to the larger atomic size?), potassium batteries are still very young technology. Both are much more common than lithium, though, so if high energy density can be achieved, long term these will become the favoured chemicals - at least, until someone invents an even better mousetrap...
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline mattinker

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2017, 11:57:55 PM »
There are far too many imponderables to be able to say much about what's going to happen in the future, even the near future. I came across this today.


https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/zeolite-catalysts-convert-carbon-dioxide-to-fuel/3007572.article?utm_content=july-zeo-reg-row&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=advert&utm_campaign=mkt-dir-cm-010-17

Regards, Matthew

Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2017, 05:48:27 AM »
Fascinating stuff... the yields are pretty poor at the moment, but human ingenuity knows no bounds, someone will find ways to improve it. Seems like a project tailor-made for Africa too: Loads of solar cells to provide the electricity, pump the water in, pump the gasoline out... At least, until fusion power is viable hat is.
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline seadog

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2017, 06:13:30 AM »
'Edman Tsang of the University of Oxford, UK, comments that both developments have come at a good time. ‘When everybody’s very interested in how to deal with carbon emissions, I think it’s pretty useful to have a direct conversion of CO2 to gasoline,’ he says.'

Great, we use CO2 from the atmosphere to create a fuel and thereby solve the problem of emissions? Am I missing something obvious here, or is there a fundamental flaw in what he's saying? What happens when the fuel is used,or is the intention just to put it in tanks and never use it?
Yes, it produces CO2. Hmmm  :Doh:

Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2017, 06:21:28 AM »
Great, we use CO2 from the atmosphere to create a fuel and thereby solve the problem of emissions? Am I missing something obvious here, or is there a fundamental flaw in what here? What happens when the fuel is used,or is the intention just to put it in tanks and never use it?
Yes, it produces CO2. Hmmm  :Doh:

Assuming you believe that manmade atmospheric CO2 is causing global warming/climate change, then - provided the electricity you use to generate the hydrogen used in the reaction is renewable - wind, solar, fusion if it ever happens - then this is a way of extending the life of existing infrastructure without increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The ultimate in green petrol...

It doesn't address the issues of NOx and city pollution, no.
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline mattinker

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2017, 06:25:27 AM »
Am I missing something obvious here, or is there a fundamental flaw in what here? What happens when the fuel is used,or is the intention just to put it in tanks and never use it?
Yes, it produces CO2. Hmmm  :Doh:

The idea is that you use the CO2 from the atmosphere rather than getting it out of the ground and increasing the percentage of CO2 in the air. This is the thinking behind burning wood as an ecological thing, the CO2 cycle doesn't make things worse!

Regards, Matthew.

Offline S. Heslop

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2017, 07:04:57 AM »
There's be alot of energy involved in collecting the CO2 from the atmosphere, and then alot of energy involved in converting it back to a useable fuel. I can't imagine it'd ever be an efficient process, or make a better store of energy than batteries or the fabled hydrogen.

Myself i'm more worried about self driving cars. I can see that once they become a thing insurance rates will skyrocket for regular cars, so you'll have to enslave yourself to Google Facebook owned computer controlled wifi connected cars that transmit your whereabouts to advertisers, your boss, and anyone else that pays for it. Who then use that information to drive you past as many billboards and fast food chains as possible on the ride home. In the year 2040 they'll have speech recognition good enough to overhear and automatically process all your conversations and use that to tailor adverts and build your credit rating and insurance rates on.

But I say that like we're not already living in that world. I just don't want even more aspects of my life controlled by huge unethical tech companies.

Offline PekkaNF

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2017, 01:53:31 PM »
That would be Fischer–Tropsch process derivate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process

Democracy is that we can choose whoever politician that obeys bankkers, energy sector and worse. Populists are worst ofcourse.

Pekka

Offline chipenter

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2017, 02:45:05 PM »
Just to change the subject slitly there is recyicling https://www.facebook.com/michelle.tangey/videos/768491296528174/  .
Jeff

Offline Mike E.

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2017, 04:13:15 PM »
I'm not worried about any ban, especially 20 odd years from now; just another political storm in a teacup. Follow the money trail. As long as there is profit to be made in fossil fuels, conventional vehicles will be made and driven somewhere on the planet. As for government bans, none will stop the flow of air born pollution at any border, lol. 
Mike

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Offline vtsteam

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2017, 11:05:22 PM »
It's funny people are so focused on forcing conversion of transportation energy sources, and ignore something as simple to alter as energy sources for building and process heat.

And to quote Bill Todd in the first post:

"As of 26 Nov 2016 this was supplied by 57% Gas, 20% nuclear, 8% coal."  Which is 85% big time fueling. Electricity is merely a medium for transmission of combustion and fission processes. It's a metaphorical hydraulic fluid flowing from the pumps of the real engines.

Transportation benefits from liquid fuels, because it has high energy density and can flow through a pipe from a tank in a compact mobile mechanism. Solids don't work well there, and gasses don't either because they have low energy density, unless under extreme pressure, a hazard in a moving vehicle.

Fluids are NOT necessary for producing heat in a stationary facility, though they are commonly used there. Whether that's a home heating furnace, industrial heating plant, or even a steam plant for producing electricity. Solids work as well, and that is the form of most unrefined (and therefore energy efficient) biofuels.

If the focus was diverted from altering fuels for transportation to altering fuels for heating and solid fuel steam powered electric generation, to solid biofuels, a great savings in fossil CO2 release would be the benefit. As well as a great reduction in the use of valuable and finite supply liquid fuels best suited to transportation.

I love it when a Plan B comes together!
Steve
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Offline awemawson

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2017, 02:21:28 AM »
But Steve, the U.K. Politicians are apparently motivated by being seen to be trying to lower pollution levels in our towns and cites, and no doubt they are correct in thinking the twice daily increase in levels during peak times is mainly due to internal combustion engines.

You are right that combined heat and power would be far easier to implement, but it wouldn't score the Brownie Points that they are chasing!

Andrew Mawson
East Sussex

Offline Jo

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2017, 03:57:49 AM »
Yet another case of Politicians opening their mouth without understanding what they are saying  :loco:

We did a study at work to look at the consequences  of our staff charging their cars when they came to work... So 1KWh = 3 miles travel, average travel to work = 50 miles = 16.6KWh recharge required. Easy you say you can do that from a 13A plug socket over 8 hours but there are 200 parking spaces = 3.2MW extra load over the working day = an extra 400KWh electric load per hour. Not only is there no electrical infrastructure in the car park to provide it but the feed to the site itself is not big enough to take that additional load and our site electric pricing is based on peak loads :bugeye:


Lets start with ALL politicians replacing their cars with Electric cars (no Hybrids) immediately, then they will get to understand the practicalities, of this latest idea of theirs.   :coffee:

Jo
So many engines to build and yet so little time.

Offline BillTodd

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2017, 07:03:22 AM »
 Thankyou jo , you get it

The real problem here is not the electric vehical or battery, it is the power supply chain. The electrical infrastructure simply cannot cope with such a significant increase in load
Bill

Offline vtsteam

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #25 on: July 30, 2017, 10:15:54 AM »
Trying to filter my comments away from the political and toward a physical/mechanical discussion because I think the thread can be of value.

I totally agree that both the supply/transmission side and the storage side problems argue against pure electrically driven transportation. And on the other hand air pollution and fossil carbon injection into the atmosphere are real issues.

I think the LED is a good example of a solution to those issues which is outside the "best fuel" box. It simply reduces the need for energy by a big factor, rather than promotes energy production.

If thought was given to reducing energy used in transportation by a similarly big factor, then the pollution and carbon emission (and consumer cost) problems are greatly impacted.
I love it when a Plan B comes together!
Steve
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Offline awemawson

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #26 on: July 30, 2017, 10:28:02 AM »
In the UK practically every small town, every city, and many villages were connected by a rail network. Each station had a 'goods yard' and the major part of transport of most goods was rail, with only the 'last leg' on roads.

It saddens me that the branch lines were swept away in the name of 'progress' - yes the network was very run down after the privations of WW2 but a more enlightened view would have been to retain at least the 'permanent way' to enable more efficient trains of the future to use. Whereas most are now gobbled up by housing developments, supermarkets with the occasional 'preserved' heritage line run by volunteers.

A very big 'missed opportunity' in my opinion.
Andrew Mawson
East Sussex

Offline vtsteam

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #27 on: July 30, 2017, 10:38:11 AM »
Hybrid vehicles are an approach that, to me, at least makes sense. If energy storage requirements can be minimized or even eliminated, I think electric motors at least, are a good idea. And if IC engines can be reduced in size, and increased in efficiency, as in hybrids, that's a good thing, too.

But thinking larger, about how vehicles are used.....probably 80% of my driving does not use a fraction of the capacity of the vehicle I own -- a pickup truck. To buy anything at all in rural Vermont, I need to drive 5 miles to town and 5 miles back on mountain roads. Do I need to move nearly 2 tons of vehicle 10 miles over hills to do that? Yet when I need to pick up concrete or tow a trailer, yes I do need most of the capacity of that truck.

We do own two vehicles, a compact fuel efficient car, and the truck, but often the smaller vehicle is busy running errands, so the truck gets used inefficiently.

So what are possible solutions to that? Get a third car? It's too expensive, takes too much space, etc. Motorcycle? Not in Vermont winters, no.

Outside the box, if instead of owning a heavy vehicle, I could use one only when needed from a community owned pool of vehicles, that might be a solution. I could own a smaller car, and trade it for the day to use the larger. Even if there was a charge for that, it would be cheaper than the yearly costs of maintaining a larger truck driven daily on unnecessarily small jobs.

And in fact, community pool ownership of smaller vehicles might make sense in some areas.

Another assistance would be community pooled delivery services, rather than driving to town myself to pick up something small. This is already actually happening via online ordering on an international basis (UPS, FedEx, DHL, etc.), but it doesn't happen on a pooled local basis, which seems backwards and counter productive. It also disrupts local economies, rather than fostering them.
I love it when a Plan B comes together!
Steve
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Offline Jo

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #28 on: July 30, 2017, 11:33:29 AM »
Lets say I buy myself an electric car, in theory I already have the solar panels with which to charge it.... They peak at 4KW output, and in the summer I often get 20KW a day = I can have free travel  :ddb:

HOWEVER during daylight hours 5 days a week my car is not at home where it could be charged for free or used as an electric storage facility, no it is sat in the work car park (see comment above).  :poke:

Jo
So many engines to build and yet so little time.

Offline awemawson

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #29 on: July 30, 2017, 11:56:41 AM »
Solved by a removable 'battery pack' and a spare :)


(Quick find more Lithium deposits - we've just doubled the number of batteries needed! )

As it happens there was a recent article in 'The Telegraph' regarding re-opening the 'South Crofty' tin mine in Cornwall as new mining techniques should allow them to remove more and lower deposits, BUT interestingly someone has already bought the water rights for water removed from the mine working as apparently it is rich in Lithium !

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/29/poldark-legacy-tin-mining-could-return-cornwall/
Andrew Mawson
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Offline hanermo

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #30 on: July 30, 2017, 12:12:54 PM »
Interesting comments --- let me put my oar in.
1- First, typical grid-use has about a 1:10 variance, ie minimum 10% use vs max capacity at peak.
2- Second, typical travel is about 30-40 km/day/car. Use 40 km.

3- Use == 200 Wh/km as avg consumption, around 200Wh/km/Tesla 3, a heavy upmarket car vs a 160 Wh/km on the small economy-bevs, or less on a tiny Renault Twizzy.

So, a typical BEV user needs == 40 km / 200 Wh/km == 8 kWh/day total consumption.
A typical house uses == 20 kWh /day, with the 10:1 variance.

So a house uses about 0.3-0.4 kW avg. load at night, and about 10x that during the peak usage, with an average 1 hour smoothing/variance.
So peaks of 6-10 kW, with avg. 4-6 kW loads per hour for a few hours.
Average typical houses have 12 kW peak capacity, mostly 15 kW+ for newer ones.

Thus, an avg. house at even if at only 10 kW peak capacity, can charge the total 20 kWh into a BEV in about 2 hours, often less than that, and under 3 hours average worst-case.
ALL modern electric grids could, in practice, charge 100% of all our car use, using nighttime electricity, very cheaply, in the aggregate.
A very old house, of only  6 kW peak capacity, could still charge the 20 kWh total in about 3.5-4.5 hours, between 11 pm - 5 am.

Based on the simple fact that our avg. peak capacity is == 12 kW/house or more, but leaves == 11kW+ peak capacity load available during 11 pm - 6 am, mostly at near-zero use.

As-is, where-is, the current grid could support approx 90-100% of electric cars for all users, in the EU, USA, and most-all oeced countries.
It is also extremely cheap, and extremely efficient.

Nighttime power is very much available, very cheap, and even thrown away by the electric utilities via resistor networks.
ANY nighttime BEV income the electric utilities get is more or less free-money to them, since 100% of their costs and investments are paid for by the current system in peaking-power and prime-time power, mostly, about 90%.

Utilities LOVE BEV charging, especially on a variable-load as-available basis, ie BEV charges on an as-available basis.
As more and more wind power is added, and wind power is biased for nighttime, the utilities can turn off more expensive secondary options, and reduce peaking power plants, that are extremely costly.
The costs for utilities go down via BEV  nite-time use, incomes go up, utilization rates go up, reliability goes up.

Current systems costs, delivered, zero subsidy, for utilities are about 2-4 cents/kWh, all-in, via 20 year PPUs, in wind and PV.
These drop 5-10% y/y, and already most of the costs, over 50%, are political BOS costs, ie paperwork and political stuff.






Offline awemawson

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #31 on: July 30, 2017, 12:24:29 PM »
Bit of an issue for all the dwellers in flats and small terrace houses typical of London where the pollution issue started with our politicians as you can't get your vehicle anywhere near your own electricity  :bugeye:

Urban areas are obviously far easier, but that's not the bulk of the problem.
Andrew Mawson
East Sussex

Offline vtsteam

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #32 on: July 30, 2017, 01:05:09 PM »
Even if night time transmission capacity were able to support an all-electric vehicle fleet on the present scale (which I doubt), I absolutely don't buy that the generating fuel consumption would remain at its even current disastrous rate. I could imagine it doubling however.

What I mean by disastrous is the effect of warming on sea ice clathrates, releasing methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Tipping that scale is chain reaction stuff. No stopping it once the critical temp is reached. Ice melts, methane released, temperature rises, ice melts, methane released, etc.

Our planet's atmosphere wasn't always what it is today, and a reversion to the times when all that plant matter (from which we get fossil fuels) was going growth crazy in a carbon dioxide rich hot water everywhere soup would have been a rapidly poisonous atmosphere for you and I.

By releasing that plant bound CO2 (and shortly methane as sea temps rise) we are tipping the balance past the point of no return.

Look up sea ice clathrates to get some idea of the scale of potential methane release. Then check the greenhouse effect of methane vs CO2.

Fossil carbon is locked up for a reason, at least as far a human life is concerned. The planet doesn't really care what we do with it. If we want to let the genie out of the bottle, fine. It's as happy in the Carboniferous era as it is supporting humans and our antics.
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Offline John Stevenson

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #33 on: July 30, 2017, 01:35:21 PM »
23years hence.

5 more governments in power inbetween

Nuff said
John Stevenson

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Best regards,

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #35 on: July 30, 2017, 02:12:21 PM »
Solved by a removable 'battery pack' and a spare :)

I looked at that and it is not economical: battery life has to at least double and half in price.

It is however cost effective to dump my spare solar power into my emersion heater and any further excess (in cooler seasons) into a resistive space heater using a cleaver gadget I have  :thumbup:

Jo
So many engines to build and yet so little time.

Offline BillTodd

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #36 on: July 30, 2017, 06:20:51 PM »
Uk average milage is about 8000 per year about 22 miles a day .  average commute is 90minutes 36% drive. that equates to 45miles each way or 90miles a working day

 I do typically 75 - 100 miles in a working day carrying 50kg of tools and 120kg of nephew  :lol: (my 2l  passat estate does about 60mpg , averages about 30mph peaking to 60mph on a good day)

a twizziy ain't gonna cut it  :D

Bill

Offline Jo

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #37 on: July 31, 2017, 04:48:11 AM »
I did start thinking about what does this electric thingy mean for Hire Cars...

For example: When I fly to foreign lands (Edinburgh) I normally hire a car and then drive the remaining 60 miles to our site, stay for a few hours and return. When I arrive on site parking is normally impossible because all the locals have pinched the parking places  :bang: But worse than that I will need a fast charge point because I need the car fully charged so I can turn round and get back in time for my flight home again. And Hire Cars are normally "dropped off" in our case from 10 miles away. So that is 10 miles less the car is capable of doing before you start (unless you charge it first). And often they forget to drop off a car and we have to take one that someone else has returned the day before :( 


Returning to charging your car at work: We did start looking at the costs associated with charging cars and their recovery. So 20KwH of electric is not a lot and the paperwork/tracking for the business would be a pain and probably cost more than the electric but if it is free it will no doubt it will be seen in the eyes of the tax man as a taxable perk..

Jo



So many engines to build and yet so little time.

Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #38 on: July 31, 2017, 05:00:10 AM »
I wonder if driverless electric "taxis" aren't the future... so, to take Jo's example, rather than having up to 200 people driving 50 miles every morning, instead you use a smartphone app to hail an electric taxi. This takes you to wherever you're going, then leaves and takes someone else somewhere else. A computer can work out if any given taxi can or can't complete a journey on whatever charge it has left, thus it won't dispatch a car to somewhere it won't be able to make it to AND back to a charging station. Speaking of; suitable high-speed charging stations can be installed in suitable locations, the cars will automatically call in when they need topping up. Although this would require sufficient vehicles to cope with peak demand (bearing in mind we've become an incredibly impatient race - we want to go somewhere, and by golly we want to go RIGHT NOW thank you!).

Such a system could work extremely well in cities, but it could be made to work in rural areas too. People with solar panels, for example, could opt to sell their power to "the electric cab co". Even in rural areas, there's generally a pretty good electricity supply, so charging stations are practical even out in the sticks. It might take a bit longer to get a "cab" to your door, but us country folk are used to waiting a bit longer for things...

IMHO, that generally addresses the needs of a typical commuter. It doesn't, however, address many other aspects of travelling:

Leisure (I want to go to Cornwall for a week's camping holiday - try that on any form of public transport....). So, maybe I can book exclusive use of a "taxi" (possibly a larger one so I can fit the whole family + luggage in it). The vehicle itself might still take off during the night to re-charge.

Worker's van: Tougher one this. All those plumbers, sparkies, broadband engineers etc... I suspect they will have to just put up with the inconvenience of recharging their own vehicles.

Note: All these little driverless cars, we could call them "Johnnycabs", and have a head-on-a-stick to talk to during the ride :lol:

Big unaddressed problem: How to pay for it all.... who pays, how much, and when? I leave that as an exercise for the reader   :scratch:  :palm:


I do wonder if, ultimately, this is going to be another one of those times when something which has transformed our lives (the privately owned motor car/van/etc.) is phased out & there's nothing better to replace it with. Maybe it'll turn out that the late 20th/early 21st centuries were "peak convenience".

Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline hanermo

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #39 on: July 31, 2017, 06:14:23 AM »
Within about 2-4 years, electric cars will be well available, from multiple manufacturers, at 60-80 kWh battery capacities as std.
Reason is money.

Currently, tsla has costs of about 112$ /kWh for 2170 cells at 380Wh/kg. World leader in usage, and costs, and lion tech.
BUT...
For == 17 years, lion cell capacities and thus costs have dropped 7-9% y/y exponential.
This means every 5 years the batteries are 50% cheaper/better.
This trend is now accelerating, because there is so much money in it.

Today, for tsla or another major manufacturer making 10 GWh/yr in lion cells (tsla is the only one today with advanced lion batteries in scale, but many others will appear and are building plants at this time), a 60 kWh battery thus costs == 60 x 112 == 7000 $ pack cost to the manufacturer.
5 years ago the cost was == 350$/kWh == 21.000$.
5 years from now, the cost will be 7000 / 1.5 = 4700 $, +/-.

At the real cost of == 100$ in 5 years, likely 60-80$, it will be trivial to make base pack sizes of == 100 kWh, for 6-8k$.

Of note:
A BMW3/Audi4 etc engine == 4000 $ to the manufacturer, gearbox about the same.
I used to sell cnc stuff to the auto manufacturers and suppliers, the nrs are pretty real.

Thus, practically *today* it is cheaper to make a high performance BEV car than a std ICE car.

A 3-phase 300 hp motor like the tsla one, is about 30 kg in mass and costs about 5€/kg, under 400$ to make.
It is just a high efficiency 3-phase motor.
The tsla-designed cheap vfd with std cheap igbts, is about 400$ in parts.

Tanks, radiators, firewalls, transmission axels, pumps, are not used, saving about 1000$.

Thus the auto industry will go to bevs, due to money, but this will mean that many/most auto companies will die ..
because they have huge liabilities in bonds and pension obligations, and personnel that cannot be easily and cheaply fired.

GM has 100-200B in assets. But they have 160B in debt.
And most of the assets are near-worthless in a post-ice world.

VW has about 20B in liquid assets, and another 30B in real ppe assets they could sell.
But they have about 900k Very Expensive personnel in germany alone, and cannot realistically reduce headcount by 50%-70%, that they would need to do to survive in a post-ice world.

The problem for VW/GM et al is not that they cannot pay their bills, next 3-5 years, while developing new tech, at a cost of 5-15B in that time.
They can pay, easily, and they can develop the tech, easily.
The real problem they have is that if/when the market sees them as having stranded assets - true - in 2-5 years, their market cap goes down.
This leads to them failing, because they then cannot, any more, put up 30B in equity to satisfy their bond obligations, pension funds, and bank covenants.

Big Auto can do 1, 2, or 3, or any 2 .. but not all 3 at once.
So far, they all have done "ostrich management", ie head-in-sand ignoring technical reality.

Markets are forward-looking.

Offline Jo

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #40 on: July 31, 2017, 06:58:21 AM »
Lets think about the people who save up and can just about buy a second hand car for £5K. Rich people replace their cars every 3 years so a car with a battery life of 5 years means that 60% of its usability has already gone before another huge bill. So I am guessing that the second hand value of cars will drop rapidly and there is going to be an active market in replacement batteries with warranties and no doubt battery insurance.

What will happen to the poor people who are challenged to find £1K to buy a car. As the petrol station close down due to lack of customers I assume the fuel prices will go up and yet again it will be the man in the street who will suffer.

All said and done: If I could buy an Electric car today with a range of over 200 miles, at under £10K (with good handling/performance/comfort) I might consider it  :coffee:.

Edit: Forgot to mention that £10K is total ownership cost for five years. I am having none of this £50 to £100 a month to rent the batteries as my monthly fuel cost is currently under £25 :poke:

Jo
« Last Edit: July 31, 2017, 09:15:50 AM by Jo »
So many engines to build and yet so little time.

Offline vintageandclassicrepairs

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #41 on: July 31, 2017, 05:50:07 PM »
Hi All,
My 2 cents worth  :smart:

Unless there's a massive increase in cheap clean electricity production I don't follow the EV argument.
Wind never blows when you need it and needs to be backed up with brown energy
If the nighttime demand for power rises so will the price of it.
From an efficiency viewpoint the power to the average home comes in at percentage's in the low 20's
So unless EV's are solely charged from clean energy their existence is dubious simply moving pollution from one place to another  :loco:

I had the question below asked at a wind farm planning appeal hearing,
"How much CO2 is produced in the manufacture and installation of a single (eg 3Mw) wind turbine and how man years before it would save that much CO2 and become carbon neutral?"

No one there would or could answer the question, which I thought should be a straight forward calculation? X tons of concrete+ Y tons of aluminium + X tons of copper and so on
Concrete and aluminium production being some of the highest producers of CO2

The big incentive to build wind farms (here in Ireland) has been the extremely long energy buying contracts offered and the governments intent to follow EU directives

 :bang:
John

Offline PK

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #42 on: July 31, 2017, 07:08:36 PM »
Unless there's a massive increase in cheap clean electricity production I don't follow the EV argument.
I think the argument is that, because governments have been selling off our utilities to balance the books for years, we find ourselves in a situation where demand has to lead supply.
Quote
I had the question below asked at a wind farm planning appeal hearing,
"How much CO2 is produced in the manufacture and installation of a single (eg 3Mw) wind turbine and how man years before it would save that much CO2 and become carbon neutral?"
  I've looked into this in the context of ev's and it's surprising how quick the payoff is.
Roughly:
1t of steel production releases 2t of CO2 (it varies quite a bit by country)
To keep it simple, lets say a wind turbine is made from 75t of steel and produces 1MW
Digging around, it looks like a figure of 500kg of CO2 per MWh is reasonable for any generation system with coal in the mix. Again it varies quite a bit...

So our wind turbine breaks even on CO2 in 150/0.5/24=12.5 days!

The source numbers I used could change quite a lot and the payback would still be good.

PK


Offline vintageandclassicrepairs

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #43 on: August 01, 2017, 06:56:54 PM »
Hi PK
But Al and concrete are the biggest parts of wind turbines ??

John

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #44 on: August 01, 2017, 10:43:26 PM »
And armature and delivery wire and Insulation, transmission components, fluids, instrumentation, switching, fire containment, cores, blades, braking, consumables, etc.  This is a powerplant, not a bridge.
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Offline Charles

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #45 on: August 02, 2017, 05:31:49 AM »
Materials in a typical 2MW wind turbine
blades, 3 of 10 tonnes GRP - 3 tones epoxy / polyester / vyinlester resin, 6 tonnes glass fibre, 1 tonne balsa or foam, bolts packers, lightning conductor, balancing mass etc

Hub, 10 tonnes steel plus either 3 giant electric motors or 3 hydraulic rams to pitch the blades, batteries or accumulators in case of power failure, cabinet containing PLC, relays, breakers etc

nacelle, 30 tonnes of steel, including frame, bearings, shaft, gearbox, generator. 500l gearbox oil, 200l hydraulic fluid, sundry motors for pumps, yaw, hydraulics etc, cabinet with PLC etc Large quantity of copper in the generator & cables (any estimates how much copper in a 2MW generator?) Housing, usually GRP, probably a couple of tonnes

Tower, 30 tonnes of steel, big bundle of cable,

somewhere nearby, transformer and switch gear to condition the power so its suitable for the grid probably another couple of tonnes of iron and copper

foundation, onshore varies with ground conditions, but say 7m cube of concrete 750 tonnes offshore steel pilings, or a steel raft

Aluminium not much used except for access ladders platforms etc, maybe 1 tonne total. Concrete towers sometimes used in places where labour is cheep.

The big issue material wise is end of life – all the steel and copper can be re-used, but no-one has yet found a way to recycle the blades

The issue for our charging electric cars is distribution – the best sites for lots of wind turbines are flat empty places like the American Midwest & the Russian Steppes the problem then is how to you move several GW of power hundreds of miles to where all the people are?

Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #46 on: August 02, 2017, 06:08:48 AM »

The issue for our charging electric cars is distribution – the best sites for lots of wind turbines are flat empty places like the American Midwest & the Russian Steppes the problem then is how to you move several GW of power hundreds of miles to where all the people are?


Hmm, turn it into petrol (see above) and drive it there in tankers/pump it in pipes?  :palm: Back to square 1...

The same is true of solar power. The Sahara would be an ideal place to mount millions of square meters of solar panels generating gigawatts of power every day.... most of which would be lost to transmission losses.

I've been reading up on batteries the last couple of days (as the result of an argument on another forum about whether F1 will ever go electric), and some of the new tech that's coming through is literally astonishing. e.g. energy densities are getting close to that of petrol.... So, I wonder, could we actually see the day when electricity is best transported by truck?! It sounds insane... but we already move oil around by truck, why not electricity in batteries?
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline PK

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #47 on: August 02, 2017, 06:14:54 AM »
Materials in a typical 2MW wind turbine
.
.
.
Hence "To keep it simple".  All of these things have calculable CO2 emissions per ton. Point is the payback in terms of CO2 saved is VERY quick.. Because nothing emits CO2 like burning coal to generate electricity.

PK

Offline Jo

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #48 on: August 02, 2017, 10:59:49 AM »
I think we need to keep this greenhouse gas stuff into perspective: In the UK Cows (Dairy & Milk) expel more greenhouse gasses than are generated by all the means of generating electric for our home consumption.

The argument on Electric Cars is to cut down emissions in towns: If you go back 50 years towns had something called Smog and that went away when we got rid of coal fires and installed central heating. Then most people smoked and town air smelt like an ashtray and smoking has been discouraged. As a result of all of this cleaning up the air there are many more cases of Asthma in towns :scratch: What they really should be looking at is gas boiler emissions  :coffee:


Ade: As an owner of Solar panels I have learnt a lot about them: they generate best on a cold Spring/Autumn's day when it is about 10 degrees outside, anything above 30 degrees and they sulk. I am at a loss why no one has picked up on solar roofing tiles rather than using concrete ones.

If you want a really interesting read on Sustainability then in 2009 (yes a few years old) David MacKay wrote "Sustainable Energy - Without the hot air" http://www.inference.eng.cam.ac.uk/sustainable/book/tex/sewtha.pdf

Jo
So many engines to build and yet so little time.

Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #49 on: August 02, 2017, 11:46:25 AM »
I am at a loss why no one has picked up on solar roofing tiles rather than using concrete ones.

Tesla has.... coming to the UK next year apparently, and at a cost of less than re-roofing with traditional materials (allegedly).

Could yet be I wish I'd not re-roofed my house just 4 years ago... that said, solar power in Liverpool isn't really much to write home about. Now, if only I could find a way of harnessing whinging....  :lol:
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline vtsteam

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #50 on: August 02, 2017, 11:15:21 PM »
The solution isn't in the source, it's in the consumption. LEDs are more helpful than solar cells. Transportation as we know it is archaic. I'm not pointing fingers. Like I said, I move a couple tons of vehicle five miles over mountains to get a cup of coffee and a doughnut sometimes. What culture of the past would have found that even conceivable?

And as far as cows emitting greenhouse gasses (primarily instrumental as methane- CH4 vs CO2) it is carbon which is part of this era's balanced cycle, not sequestered fossil carbon which was part of a poisonous prehistoric atmosphere. Burn cow methane, fine. Balance stays the same. Dredge up fossil carbon and turn it into gas, things will change. Interesting read here re. methane clathrates of possible warming effects on sea ice:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

Oh, well, if not of interest, okay. Last post on the subject.  :wave:
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Steve
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Offline AdeV

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #51 on: August 03, 2017, 04:50:13 AM »
Hey, this is the water cooler... any topic permitted, even if you're wrong  :lol: (kidding).

IMHO - and I know this is a divisive view - I personally don't think the atmospheric CO2 concentrations are responsible for most of the "climate change" that we're seeing - directly OR indirectly. I grant you they will have a very small effect on atmospheric temperatures, but I'm plenty sure the Earth has enough radiative capacity to shed any extra heat to space. Furthermore, increasing atmospheric temperatures are supposed to result in less cloud cover = more heat escaping... it's all checks & balances. I'm loathe to blindly "accept the science" for a couple of reasons: One, the unspeakable arrogance of the "anthropogenic CO2 is to blame" brigade, who will literally not even listen to any skepticism, even from qualified scientists ("The science is settled" - well, that'll be the first time in the entire history of science then). Two, because the definition of "not being in an ice age" is the lack of permanent polar ice. By that definition, we are right at the very tail end of the last ice age, and about to settle in for a long warm spell.

There seems to be this odd belief that the climate was "just about perfect" sometime before 1980. Yet climate changes all the time. Heck, go back far enough and the entire atmosphere was completely different. It's widely believed that O2 concentrations in the era of the Dinosaur were far higher than 20%, biology tells us they had to be otherwise such big animals simply couldn't take in enough oxygen to survive.

Anyway... enough of that... more about batteries. Graphene, the new wonder material that just keeps on giving, seems to be key in making new and extremely energy dense batteries... they're even starting to turn up on the market now, will be interesting to see what happens to the EV market when large sized Graphene batteries become commonplace...
Cheers!
Ade.
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Offline awemawson

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #52 on: August 03, 2017, 06:04:24 AM »
I saw some interesting statistics correlating ocean temperature, sun spot activity and atmospheric CO2 levels about  year ago but cannot now find the figures.

The interesting thing was that over hundreds (maybe thousands) of years, ocean temperatures have risen following increased sun activity, and after a fairly consistent LAG then CO2 in the atmosphere had risen. The conclusion drawn was that the ocean warmed a bit, had less capacity to absorb CO2 so then released it to atmosphere.

So from that the main mover in CO2 levels was believed to be sun spot activity !

Now what's this about CO2 being released if water warm up ? Well you only have to compare a bottle of Coke (dreadful stuff!) from the 'fridge with one at room temperature to see the effect when you remove the top !

I thought that the really clever bit was how they were getting and also deducing their measurements. I was convinced and I'm fairly skeptical about off the wall theories.

Andrew Mawson
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Offline mattinker

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Re: Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040
« Reply #53 on: August 03, 2017, 06:43:30 AM »
I found this when I went looking for information to back up somethingg that I'd seen not too long ago about CO² level rises since the industrial revolution.

https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/

Something to think about, an internal combustion engine of 2litres capacity at tickover of 1000RPM consumes one cubic meter of air per minute!