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Ban of sales of IC engined cars to support electric cars by 2040

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BillTodd:
Feeling the need to rant...


It is interesting to crunch some numbers: 

The UK's total generating capacity is about 74.8GW  (as of 2015, although this is expected to drop to 70.6GW by 2019). As of 26 Nov 2016 this was supplied by 57% Gas, 20% nuclear, 8% coal, 5% biomass, 2.6% french ICT 2.6% Dutch ICT,  2% wind plus a few otherminor sources.


Typical peak demand is 48GW, leaving about 26GW for fast charging (assuming all resources are available)

Last night (26 Nov 2016) overnight demand (between midnight and 05:00) dropped to 26.3GW. Leaving about 48.5 GW to charge batteries over night (assuming all resources are available)

(http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/demand24.htm)

The typical EV battery is between 10kWh and 100kWh ( 3kW - 20KW required charge depending on speed) and it really does not matter what battery technology will be used , moving a tonne of car along (even at typically slow UK road speeds) takes the same amount of energy.

So, the UK might just be able to cope  with 16 million electric cars charging slowly over night or as few as a million on fast charge
 (Assuming  the domestic grid can cope with the current) .

There are 31.7 million cars on the UK's road as of 2016.


ONE standard petrol pump can ‘dispense’ about 20,000kw ; 600 gallons per hour times 33.4kwh/ USgallon (figures in UK/Europe are similar). Compare this with your standard domestic supply which is,in the UK 60A@230v, ~ 14kw. Nobody’s going to be charging their electric vehicle at home very fast unless there is a significant upgrade to the power grid.

Another point: there are 8 pumps at my local petrol station, and there must be more than half a dozen similar sized filling stations within a mile or two. Those can supply about a gigawatt of power, or about the same output as the Sizewell B nuclear power station (PWR).

If all future vehicles are going to be electric, our neighbourhoods are going to change out of all recognition.


Bill

David Jupp:
The news coverage on this has been woeful - not clear at all.

Is it just pure IC driven cars that will be banned?  If so then Hybrids (which we'll still fill up with petrol or diesel) will still be sold.

Sure there will be increase in pure electric cars, but in another 20+ years our infrastructure will look very different too - that's part of the point of giving the long notice, to drive some of the changes.

AdeV:
The ban will include hybrids (petrol/electric or diesel/electric). Which basically leaves electric or fuel cell powered options.

chipenter:
Not to mention the CO2 needed to make the batteries , and the raw materials to make them of witch we are running out of .

awemawson:
I visualise having an electric tractor pulling a HUGE battery on a trailer followed by a single furrow plough - no more 15 furrow fast ploughs I'm afraid.

From an Eco point of view, my current tractors are 1973 and and 1975 (I think) - so a very long life span / payback for the initial energy used making them - whereas any feasible electric replacement will have a very limited life if only because of the battery.


There are going to be a lot of hungry people breathing all this pure air we've achieved  :scratch:

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